The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry surge model forecast for the eastern end of Lake Erie is predicting lake levels to reach just below critical levels today.  

A surface low pressure system is set to traverse the province bringing strong winds to the Lower Great Lakes Region today and Wednesday. These winds have the potential to cause a lake surge combined with high waves which may cause localized shoreline flooding this afternoon/evening.

Strong south-southwest winds in the 45 to 50 km/h range are expected to begin this afternoon and persist until Wednesday afternoon, with gusts up to 90 km/h possible. 

Lake Erie levels are forecast to rise this morning before peaking this afternoon between 4:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. (approx.). Lake levels are forecast to rise 0.7 metres above the current level, accompanied by waves of up to 1.5 metres.

In the vicinity of Port Maitland the following forecast applies:


Lake Erie current elevation at Port Maitland:       174.7 m (IGLD 1985)

Lake Erie estimated to peak at:                        175.4 m (IGLD 1985), excluding waves

Critical Level:                                                            175.5 m (IGLD 1985)

Forecast (estimated) Peak Lake Level:                  0.1 m below critical levels, excluding waves

Haldimand County OPP and municipal staff are requested to monitor roads along the lakeshore this afternoon and implement closures as necessary. The Haldimand County Flood Coordinator is requested to warn those residents and businesses within Flood Zone 1 along the Grand River downstream of the Dunnville Dam, in the village of Port Maitland and along the lakeshore.

Lake levels are updated each hour on the GRCA website at under the river data section.